Is the United States a target of Unconventional Warfare?
In previous blog posts I have discussed the Russians at length. Russia is conducting long term strategic fourth generation warfare. They clearly recognize how to fight asymmetrically while utilizing all the national power they have at their disposal. The Russians understand how to synchronize political, economic, and kinetic operations into one cohesive system of warfare.
The fracturing and assimilation of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine is a clear warning, they know how to execute with a high probability of success. The question is, can this type of operation be executed here in the United States?
Not only is the answer yes, but we are a very well-developed target. We are possibly at risk of being the victims of the greatest unconventional warfare campaign in history.
I know this sounds very improbable. If the Crimea operation is the template, then it is true we are at risk. The first question is what is the objective of the adversary? Is it to seize territory? If viewed from the perspective of the Chinese, this is feasible. I will explain later how this might be possible. But a more likely scenario is to destabilize the United State to such a point that OCONUS operations are restricted.
The Russians might want to push southwest from their shared border with Iran across Turkey to consolidate in Syria. They would be unable to do this with an intact United States that has cohesive force projection in place. The Russians would need to destabilize the United States to a point where US force projection would be limited to our hemisphere.
If this destabilization effort was conducted prior to the operation in Syria, Russian and Iranian forces would be able to steamroll across the levant and consolidate Syria. It could take months or years for the United States to recover from what might be possible. The last thing we would be focused on is the Middle East, or Taiwan.
What I have established in previous blog posts is the way the Russians conduct Hybrid Warfare follows a pattern. Russians are in a state of constant political warfare. That surveillance, intelligence, and espionage operations are constant. The Russians never stop learning and adapting, and telling the Chinese.
This constant cycle of political warfare coupled with Information Operations and Cyber Warfare is designed to wear and grind the opponent into a position where sections of the population become suspectable to subversion efforts.
The left in the United States has constantly drifted further and further from the values that founded the nation. Socialism and Communism are openly endorsed by Leftist presidential candidates. Many on the left openly espouse doctrine that they admit is founded in Marx, Lenin, or Mao. Where any social construct that supports traditional or constitutional based values is persecuted. Surrendering American sovereignty, no personal property, race based social engineering, excessive taxation, destruction of the family, and eradication of faith-based beliefs are becoming commonplace perspectives on the left.
All of this took root in the anti-war movement of the 1960’s which is well known to have been infiltrated by the KGB. From college campuses to tech giant board rooms. Ideological persecution of non-leftist thought and strict adherence to leftist dogma is ruthlessly enforced. The 1st Amendment is dead on our campuses. The American left is a deep and very fertile ground of subversion. Where converts to communism and even foreign agents would find a welcoming environment.
Communism spreads like a virus. A virus tricks the host cell into thinking that the virus is part of the body. It makes the defenses of the body useless because on outward appearance the virus looks like a part of the body. The body never attacks itself. This is what the communist and virus relies on. It then enters the target cells and uses the mechanisms of reproduction to create more viruses. They spread and continue the process. The American College Campus and Corporate Media is terminally ill with the virus of Marxist ideology.
From these bases of power (academia, media) the American left’s well-established subversion operations begin a war of culture. This is where through favorable courts, left leaning state houses, curriculums, and mass media operations, attacks against the constitutional rights and traditional beliefs are conducted. During the 1990’s and 2000’s it was even openly called “the culture wars”. Where legal juxtapositions and media propaganda attacked every traditional value. Many remember crosses destroyed at military grave sites and the ten commandments being ripped from our court houses.
Even though the destruction this ideology and policy creates is clearly evident in Venezuela or the African-American communities, it is becoming widely embraced. Between 20-30% of Americans identify themselves as liberals/leftists. Of note, approximately 21% of a population is needed to support a successful revolt. Cultural warfare continues to rage across our campuses and airwaves. Since the Presidential election of Donald Trump there is a new level of action from the communist left.
When Insurrection starts is when physical actions are taken to support the ongoing Political, Electronic, and Ideological Warfare. The physical acts can vary greatly. During the United States 2016 Presidential Election, supporters of Donald Trump were chased through the streets and attacked by mobs outside political rallies. To this day supporters of the current US President are mocked, verbally assaulted, and in certain locations physically attacked.
Antifa and other left-wing revolutionaries are arming, organizing, and carrying out mob style attacks. We are obviously well into an insurrection. Chants of “He is not my President”, “Resist”, FBI coup attempts, fraudulent Special Counsel Investigations, and daily false media claims cement this reality.
The next phase on the next generation Unconventional Warfare timeline is Cessation. Efforts to break away from the rest of the nation mark a very distinct change in the trajectory. This marks a period of impending and very real danger. Comments about areas ceding from the host nation are the moment where even the most strident skeptic needs to stop and take note. Sanctuary cities and open discussions about splitting California and Washington State meet the criteria for cessation movements.
We are only a few violent events away from being in state of low-level revolt. Gun confiscation in New Jersey, the Washington Attorney General acting against the Sheriffs who oppose his unconstitutional gun laws, Red Flag laws in Maryland, the U.S. Attorney General taking action against mayors of sanctuary cities, indictment of Hillary Clinton for selling state secrets through her private server, or the indictment of former President Barack Obama for his support of ISIS, there are a multitude of fault lines for violence.
This is exactly where our adversaries want us. Is it a situation where animosity has been cultivated for just such time? Or is just the natural progression of our society that has developed these fractures. I would say it is both, but much more of the first. The American Left has been signaling there are moving to the strategic offensive in Mao’s cultural warfare model. In Chicago, just before his election, former President Obama’s said, “we are 24 hours away from fundamentally transforming the United States”. What about the United States in 2008 need to be fundamental transformed? Was the campaign slogan of “Change” really code for revolt? Was this the moment decades earlier where campus communists would say “the revolution will be televised”?
Was the Obama administration really a soft coup where the mechanisms of state, intelligence services, law enforcement, and the IRS would be weaponized against political adversaries? Where financial crises would be created and exploited to funnel wealth to like minded leftists. Where the leftist cultural dogma would be pushed into overdrive. Where the Obama DOJ bought firearms and funneled them to Mexican Drug Cartels, that killed US Law Enforcement officers, in order to undermine the 2nd Amendment. (The left and drug cartels will get special attention later).
That at the end of Obama’s Administration; our most powerful tools of intelligence collection, foreign intelligence services specialists, deception of FISA judges, were all used to surveille, collect information on, and undermine an opposition party election effort and Presidency. Couple this with Obama Justice Department hold overs in the FBI admitting to actively undermining and attempting to remove a duly elected President of the United States from office.
Political warfare, subversion, insurrection, treason, and waiting on the event that leads to wide spread violence is the current state of political affairs in the United States.
The next step, open revolt, requires two specific bases of power to be effective in the United States. Deep blue sanctuary cites and the drug cartels. This is where the delineation from the most likely course of action of the Russians and the Chinese scenarios happens. The Russians do not have the mechanisms to project power into the United States to seize and hold territory where as the Chinese do. The Russians would be focused on a wide area disruption resulting in a substantial delaying action for US forces. This would allow them to execute offensive operations elsewhere in the world with no to little US involvement. The Chinese could very well follow the same pathway. Where the Chinese differ is, they could project combat forces into the United States.
When it comes to Russian or Chinese wide area disruption, remember all the different phases are in effect. The nation is divided along ideological lines. Coastal cities are ideological opposites from the suburban and rural areas. These “Blue Hive” cities are congruent in their leftist ideology. They are also consistent in their support of illegal immigrants and immigrants from countries with Islamic Extremism. This population is a key capability for any unconventional warfare campaign against the United States.
While I believe most immigrants, both legal and illegal, just want to live a better life. Regardless, bad actors in this population poses a serious risk. We have large Somali populations in places such as Minneapolis, Seattle, and Columbus, Ohio. These Somali populations have sent fighters and funding from the United States to fight US and collation forces in the middle east. We know Somali fighters in the 1993 Battle for Mogadishu had Al-Queda training and support.
Even a small percentage of legal immigrants or illegal immigrants aligned with Islamic extremism is a risk we know well. US law enforcement has taken great effort to find these groups. But their efforts are routinely hampered by administrations of “Blue Hive” cities. Who seek to enforce their leftist ideology by allowing these populations safe haven in the name of tolerance.
What is by far more alarming is the illegal immigrants that pour across our southern border. We do not know who is in our country. We do not know how many illegal immigrants are in our country. We do know that drug cartels have extensive networks within this population. We also know that many on the American Left see this population as their future. If the Left continues down the path of this new generation of Unconventional Warfare, the drug cartels, and their networks will be a critical part of their combat power.
The ability to move men, weapons, money, and supplies across borders is a key capability of any Unconventional Warfare campaign that is actively leading a revolt against the host nation. The Drug Cartels have decades of experience in all these operations. There are an estimated 20,000,000 illegal immigrants inside the United States. There are substantial populations in every state. Imagine if only 2% of these people could be activated to work at the behest of the Unconventional Warfare campaign by the Drug Cartels and their Leftist enablers. That is a group of 400,000 people, larger than the United States Marine Corps.
A foreign power would recruit and train Unconventional Warfare experts from the numerous pro-communist populations in Central and South America. These groups would be imbedded into the drug cartels and illegal immigrant populations. This would provide the back bone of the insurgent force inside the United States in a wide area disruption attack. Due to left leaning politicians and advocacy groups these populations are difficult to for Law enforcement to deal with. Even if individual operatives were detained before overt operations were to commence, they could easily re-enter the United States or be replaced. They are also not basement dwelling effeminate campus communists, they are hardened MS-13 type criminals who are willing and able to fight.
With proper leadership by Unconventional Warfare Experts they could conduct small scale raids and sabotage operations. Due to the fragile US infrastructure and broad dispersion of these elements they could cause massive havoc. If led by Unconventional Warfare experts, they could use the techniques seen in the Crimea and Ukraine. They could cause massive disruptions to the United States. If this was coupled with Cyber Warfare and Information Operations, they could do irreparable harm.
They would easily overwhelm law enforcement, even under martial law they could still conduct operations. This would cause large scale withdrawals of forward deployed forces and massive mobilizations of the National Guard. They could still find safe haven in the “blue Hive” cities that currently offer protection. If the Russians or Chinese were to ensure that only ethnic Hispanics were conducting the operations they would have a high probability of successfully being able to deny involvement in the attacks.
Operations would only have to cause enough disruption to pull forward deployed forces back to the United States. After spending 20 years as a Green Beret, I am of the opinion this could be done easily. Never using the same group more than once or twice. It would be a high level campaign including a constant barrage of events in ever changing cities and states. Attacking high profile infrastructure such as sporting events, concerts, rallies, malls, schools, and conservative elected officials would be easy to conduct. We are dealing with Drug Cartels and their sympathizers who with enough funding would be more than willing to take on the role of insurgent. The “La Raza” movement already has a larger narrative to exploit.
Chinese, Russain, Iranian Q‘ouds forces, and Hezbollah are all known to be conducting operations in South and Central America. These groups are all anti-American and/or Anti-Semitic. It is rational to think there is cooperation. All seek to remove American forces from more than one part of the globe. If the attacks could stay focused on conservative areas and leaders it could result in a national paralysis. Just imagine wide spread violence that we have already seen form Antifa and other left wing radicals at President Trump’s 2016 rallies. 2020 might be Drug Cartel levels of violence. If the Red States and their leaders were constantly attacked but Blue Hives and their populations remained safe, the animosity would spill over into violence quickly. Add overbearing gun seizure laws like proposed by Washington State, violence would be assured. The Information Operations and Political Warfare would be crippling and divisive. It would be hard to avoid Civil War.
If the foreign sponsor of such a campaign was focused on a limited strategic goal, such a seizing Taiwan or the Baltic States, the US could not mount an effective resistance while struggling with internal turmoil. Both of those campaigns would take days or weeks. The US would not be able to respond effectively, if it even chose to. If the US fell into civil war, larger objectives such as attacks against Pacific Nations or European Nations could be conducted.
But what if the objective of China was to seize and hold US territory, to conduct an invasion. As far fetched as it seems, it is feasible. Every day the big “Blue Hive” cites and the statehouses they stack on the west coast ideologically drift further away from the foundational principals and established laws of this nation. The Statehouses in Olympia and Sacramento are more aligned with Mao and Lenin than Washington and Jefferson.
Donald Trump looks to get re-elected. Criminal activity and election tampering by the left should be on full display throughout the 2020 election season. His strength in foreign policy and the economy while avoiding hot button social issues puts him in a good position. If a voter ID act is passed, keeping elections to living persons and legal US citizens, Donald Trump’s reelection will be assured.
The communist left, which is now the mainstream of the democratic party. Is going to become much more violent than they did after the 2016 election. Discussions of cessation of states with “Blue Hive” cities will have real traction. Remember the Crimea. The parts of Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea no longer saw the Government in Kiev as legitimate. One event was enough for them to seek outside help in breaking away.
It could very well be that west coast “Blue Hive” cites, which have disproportionate influence over their states would seek help outside the United State for support in no longer being under the second term of the Trump Administration. Who would the breakaway West Coast turn to?
They would turn to China with its massive west coast influence socially, economically, politically, and most importantly ideologically. A nation that has massive cargo ships filling west coast ports with thousands of containers each day. A nation that if they were able to nest inside a “breakaway” west coast that was “seeking its own destiny”, could provide and direct highly advanced area denial, air defense, 5th generation fighters, and a massive army. Thousands of fully equipped troops, air defense systems, and even fighter jets could be placed in the cargo ships that fill our ports.
If the breakaway west coast was enabling it, in the same manner as they enable illegal immigration, they could be inside US territory undetected and set up before we could properly mobilize. If this is coupled using UW experts imbedded in Drug Gangs and Illegal Immigrant population for a wide area disruptive attack, the United State might not even be able to respond until well after a breakaway west coast had a full ground-based protection structure in place operated by China.
While the US Navy and US Air Force would have a lot to say about how well this operation is sustained. The political positioning of the Russians executed in the Crimea is the perfect template for the same type of operation. If the population in the deep blue west coast areas wanted to “breakaway” and declare themselves sovereign then sought Chinese help, how effective could the US response be? Remember the virus exploits the fact a body never attacks itself.
There would be no way to calculate the effect of sabotage attacks, cyber, and I/O operations ability to magnify of this kind of invasion. We do not fully understand the depth and breadth of the defense secrets compromised by the Clinton Foundation private server. The Chinese could be very successful at thwarting our General Purpose Forces ability to respond. My only question is, if they are successful in infiltrating thousands of troops and advanced equipment under our noses, and with ongoing sabotage attacks from the UW experts imbedded into Drug Gangs, would they be willing to stop at the Sierras and Cascade mountain ranges?
I mentioned earlier that it seems the long term year political trend line in the United States fits the mold of Maoist cultural warfare. That many of the unwelcome changes in our society are found in Mao’s little red book. That it might very well be that all efforts of the international communist movement over the last 50 years just might have cultivated this situation. It might not be the most likely course of action, but it is the most dangerous course of action.
It is highly improbable the United States might suffer an attack such as this. We also never considered an attack like we suffered on September 11th 2001. I consider a Chinese or Russian supported UW wide area disruptive attack to support a regional goal as much more likely. I hope it is obvious a coordinated seizure of US territory by a foreign adversary is more feasible than previously understood. Make no mistake the United States is the target of the largest and most sophisticated Cultural and Unconventional Warfare campaign in history. Only time will tell if we can change course before it is too late.