In previous blog posts I have discussed the situation in Syria as volatile. I have described how there are similarities of the Spanish Civil War that preceded WWII and the environment in Syria. https://www.handldefense.com/2016/10/spanish-and-syrian-civil-wars-precusors-to-global-war/ Even though that was written when the calamity of Clinton Presidency was still possible. It seemed with the steady hands of General Kelly and General Mattis taking positions of prominence in the Trump White House, that a pathway out of the Levant was possible. I see a clear path strategically to distance the U.S from further involvement in an area that is paying very little strategic dividends. https://www.handldefense.com/2017/04/a-way-forward-in-syria/
I said then “A mismanaged Syrian Civil War would set the conditions for World War III.” I feel we have just went up over the rampart into the no-man’s land around Ypres. In the second article, I mention a threshold that once crossed carries very serious consequences. I also mention what I call the “door jam” for peace in the middle east. We have crossed that threshold with minimal fanfare or the degenerate corporate media’s attention. To complicate matters the “door jam” is being wedged in with a 16 pound sledgehammer.
The threshold we have just crossed is now Americans are apparently killing Russians in Syria. Stop yourself and read that sentence again. Then take a moment to absorb the global consequences of that statement.
The United States military has been wiping out the remnants of ISIS and other militant groups. Some of the groups loyal to Assad, have imbedded Spetznas troops. Others units have Russian Private Military Contractors (PMC’s). Recently US Forces have just attacked and wiped out a militant group that had multiple Attached Russian PMC’s. https://www.funker530.com/us-strikes-kill-100-troops-syria/ . All signs point to several of the Russians being killed.
I want to delve into the significance of this event. PMC’s in Russia are similar to the same men US Private Military Companies use. Retired or Reserve Special Operations troops. U.S. PMC companies recruit the highly qualified personnel of Special Forces reserve units. They often have employment offers ready for active SOF personnel before they leave active duty. Many of the U.S. PMC’s transition between contracting, reserve SOF units, and temporary active SOF unit service. The connection between PMC, Reserve SOF, and active SOF is much tighter than you might imagine. For those in the SOF community, if you don’t know someone, you probably know someone who does.
The Russian PMC’s surely operate the exact same way. Since they are smaller than US SOF they are probably even more connected. This is incredibly significant. Those Russian PMC’s we just killed, they have friends still in Spetznas. There is leadership in Russia who knew these men. They will seek revenge against Americans.
What happens when a former or current Green Beret or SEAL gets killed by a Russian airstrike or ambush? How far does it escalate? You know they are planning their revenge. Even more consequential, doing so by circumventing our technology and techniques. These tactical escalations will result in strategic consequences. This is how wars start, just like this. Are we ready? Is this the fight we want?
If this is not enough, nobody seems to be paying even the slightest attention to a NATO member’s actions in Syria. Turkey is allowing Al-Qaeda fighters to join its efforts to fight the Kurds. https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/al-qaeda-joins-ranks-turkey-led-forces-battling-kurdish-fighters-syrias-afrin-reports/ . Yes, you read that correctly. The organization behind the 9-11 attacks that killed 3000 Americans, is currently fighting alongside a full blown Article 5 NATO partner. Fighting against the Kurds, who many will attest to, is our greatest supporter in the Levant.
Erdogan’s false coup of July 15th, 2016 allowed him to consolidate power over the media and judiciary branches of Turkey. http://www.aei.org/publication/turkish-officers-speak-erdogan-may-have-staged-coup/ . Since then he has made considerable moves toward totalitarian and Islamic fundamentalism. He has also purged senior military leadership in Turkey. He removed and revised the senior military counsel, whose purpose was to keep Turkey from falling into autocratic rule. Considering Turkey’s genocidal past and their rather flippant shooting down of Russian fighters http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581 should give the entire western world pause.
I wonder how long until we see some sort of event surrounding the US airbase at Incirlik. Which mind you is only about 125 miles away from the Basil Al-Assad Airbase southeast of Latakia, where the Russians are keeping their Fighter Aircraft. There is an immense amount of volatile action packed in to area the size of the US Northeast.
We are one SU-25 strike on a SEAL team away from this getting out of control. In this day of everything is Trumps fault, it will be blasted 24-7 by the legacy media establishment. He will send a reply, that Putin will be waiting and ready for. Still, Turkey is the “Door Jam” to resolving the Syrian Civil War. Until we can find a way to close the door and contain Turkey, this fire will continue to spread. If we keep killing Russians and they start killing us, we open the door for global war. The second order effects will be felt in Europe first, just like the last two world wars.